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Measuring the spread of the Bitcoin Bank network is not that easy. Because the picture that provides the number of addresses is distorted. But a new on-chain indicator can shed light on the darkness of adaptation and even anticipate a price trend.

The Bitcoin price is getting strong again and was able to rise over 8 percent within a week

It is now well over $ 11,000. We reported yesterday about the short-term reasons for the price increase . Separated from this, however, a more long-term indicator could also help with Bitcoin price prediction.

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The Bitcoin course grows with the adaptation. Logical, after all, around 900 BTC worth $ 9.5 million (USD) flows into the network every day. This volume must first find buyers in order for the price to remain stable at all – not to mention growth.

How widespread Bitcoin is, however, is difficult to measure. The number of addresses , i.e. the individual “bank accounts” on which BTC is located, only gives an imprecise picture. After all, it is now common practice to generate a new address for every transaction. That is, individual Bitcoiners can have two to three-digit numbers of different addresses.

Furthermore, individual addresses can also hold the credit of different Bitcoiners, such as Exchange addresses

The on-chain analysis service Glassnode paints a more precise picture . With the “Active Entities Indicator” the data scientists try to separate addresses and actual Bitcoin users. The result: the number of addresses is about three times higher than that of users. In other words: on average, each “entity” controls three addresses.

Number of addresses in relation to the users (referred to here as „entities“). Source: Glassnode
According to our analysis, the number of entities that own Bitcoin was around 23.1 million in January 2020,

23 million bitcoin

The growth of Bitcoin users is a clear bullish signal – and it could hardly be any brighter right now.

Because as on-chain analyst Cole Garner notes on Twitter , Bitcoin users are currently flocking to the network in droves.

In their search for meaningful on-chain indicators, investors can now fall back on another tool. We are talking about the „Active Address Sentiment“ from BTC trader Philip Swift. This is a Bitcoin metric that compares the number of active addresses with the price. Lo and behold: there seems to be a connection. If the orange line (active addresses) touches one of the dotted lines, this often marks a short-term bottom or a short-term top.

The active address sentiment indicator. The green arrows each mark a short-term bottom and thus represent good entry opportunities. The red arrows indicate tops.
The indicator becomes intuitively understandable if one imagines it as the relationship between price growth and adaptation. If the price soars, the price increase cannot be absorbed by the adaptation (measured here as active addresses) and it must be corrected. The indicator is therefore a combination of on-chain metrics and fundamental analysis and can provide important information about the short-term trend.

Is it time to look for another name for this phenomenon?

Alexis Direr, a researcher at the University of Orleans in France, has published an article summarising the mathematical foundations of Uniswap and other exchanges based on Automated Market Makers.

Automated Market Maker is the term for a kind of decentralized exchange that reached significant popularity in 2020, led by Uniswap.

In short, these exchanges eliminate traditional order books and instead are based on liquidity groups governed by a mathematical formula. Traders can always trade the group for even the most illiquid tokens, but each order will affect the price of the asset they are trading, a phenomenon called ’slippage‘.

The mathematical formula defines how the price changes in response to the size of a particular order. For example, the formula may say that trading 10 Ether (ETH) for Dai (DAI) yields USD 3500, but trading 100 ETH yields only USD 3,400. The formula is often called the „linkage curve“, as the various possible combinations describe a particular price curve. In the case of Uniswap, the curve is a hyperbola, although other MMAs may have more complex ways of optimizing for different scenarios.

MMAs depend on liquidity providers: individuals and entities that commit their capital to liquidity groups to facilitate transactions and reduce slippage. In return, LPs get commercial rates paid by users.

While this may seem like good business, liquidity providers must deal with „impermanent“ losses. LPs can end up with less money than they initially invested when the price fluctuates significantly in one direction. Compared to a 50:50 portfolio of the assets in question, the portfolio has a significantly lower return with large price deviations.

The researcher explains that this phenomenon is caused by the presence of arbitrage traders. External market prices do not follow the linkage curve, so constant action is needed to keep the Uniswap price in balance with the rest of the market. But when arbitrageurs rebalance the group to the correct value, they do so at a „sub-optimal exchange rate“ defined by the tie curve. This action extracts value from the liquidity providers in favour of the arbitrageurs.

The loss is generally referred to as „impermanent“ because if the price were to return to its initial value, the liquidity providers would be completely flat compared with the 50:50 benchmark portfolio. Discounting the case where the price moves permanently to a new equilibrium, Direr raises the question:

„The fact that the two strategies give the same result seems disturbing at first. In the pooling strategy, the pool incurs arbitrage costs twice […] In the holding strategy, investors avoid arbitrage costs entirely, but end up with the same final wealth. How is this possible?“

The researcher’s answer is that the way benchmarking is commonly done is misleading. Uniswap constantly rebalances the group as it goes up or down, so that liquidity providers have fewer units of the asset that went up in price and more units of the asset that went down in relative terms.

LPs effectively perform a two-way profit and cost averaging technique. They secure part of the profits as the price of an asset rises and progressively buy more as it falls again.

Similar to how such an averaging technique would work, a 50:50 portfolio which is constantly rebalancing will generate profits, even though the price returns to the initial number. In comparison the value of the liquidity fund simply remains where it was.

Therefore „temporary loss“ appears to be a misleading term. The loss is always permanent, but in the optimistic scenario it simply cuts into the gains that an equivalent strategy would have made.

Bancor V2 and Mooniswap have adopted techniques to mitigate this type of loss. The former uses oracles to read the actual market prices and balance the group accordingly, while the latter introduces a gradual time delay to minimise arbitrage traders‘ profits.

Raport Europolu wykazały, że tylko 1,1% z Bitcoin użytku jest związana z działalnością przestępczą, zmniejszenie 94,5% od roku 2013. To ogromna zmiana jest wynikiem powstania w handlu Bitcoin Billionaire w latach od tego czasu, ale nie jest to dobre wiadomości – Raport stwierdza również, że monety, portfele i inne powiązane technologie stanowią „największe zagrożenie” dla organów ścigania w Europie, a cyberprzestępcy coraz mądrzej radzą sobie z nielegalnie uzyskaną kryptowalutą .

Europol – Cyberprzestępcy stają się mądrzejsi

W nowym raporcie na temat przestępczości zorganizowanej w Internecie, zatytułowanym Internet Organized Crime Threat Assessment (IOCTA) 2020, Europol stwierdza, że ​​kryptowaluty „nadal ułatwiają płatności za różne formy cyberprzestępczości”, przy czym podstawową metodą jest oprogramowanie ransomware , a sprawcy takich przestępstw rozwinęły swoje praktyki, aby wykorzystywać monety i usługi zorientowane na prywatność w celu uniknięcia władz.

Te „koncepcje coinjoin zwiększające prywatność”, takie jak Wasabi i Samurai, stają się coraz bardziej popularne wśród nielegalnych użytkowników kryptowalut, pomimo tego, że Chainalysis twierdzi, że jest w stanie śledzić transakcje w niektórych z tych usług mieszania. Europol zauważa, że ​​kryptowaluty stały się „domyślną metodą płatności za… oprogramowanie ransomware i inne programy wymuszeń” ze względu na ich „niezawodność, nieodwracalność transakcji i postrzegany stopień anonimowości”.

Władze na całym świecie próbowały w ostatnich miesiącach walczyć z tym zjawiskiem, zatrudniając firmy zajmujące się analizą łańcucha bloków, aby pomogły im w śledzeniu środków przesyłanych za pomocą technologii zwiększającej prywatność.

Legalne użycie Bitcoinów, krasnoludki Nielegalne użycie

Raport Europolu nie był jednak całkowicie złą wiadomością dla kryptowaluty, ponieważ ujawnił, że legalne wykorzystanie kryptowalut wzrosło znacznie szybciej niż nielegalne użycie:

W 2019 roku przytłaczająca większość transakcji bitcoinowych była powiązana z działalnością inwestycyjną i

handlową, więc pomimo znacznych nadużyć działalność przestępcza stanowi zaledwie 1,1% wszystkich transakcji.

Według danych Europolu oznacza to spadek o 94,5% w porównaniu z 2013 r., Kiedy witryny takie jak Silk Road były głównym przypadkiem użycia kryptowalut. Handel bitcoinami jest tak popularny, że przyćmiewa nielegalne użycie, z czego zwolennicy będą bardzo zadowoleni, biorąc pod uwagę utrzymujące się negatywne postrzeganie Bitcoina na całym świecie.

Roberto Campos Neto said in an interview that banks will have access to a population more banking with technological innovations

Central Bank President Minimizes Bank Resistance and Advocates Payments via WhatsApp and Google in BrazilNOTÍCIAS

The president of the Brazilian Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, minimized on Monday the resistance of traditional banks to the innovative systems launched by the Central Bank, PIX and Open Banking, which should have a profound impact on the sector.

CVM releases material on Day Trade and application that can help investors not to fall prey to the coup
PIX opened registration on Monday, with over 3.5 million keys registered by the end of the first day. In the interview, he acknowledged that the Central Bank had anticipated the processes for launching the new system due to the crisis:

„One of the main characteristics of this crisis is that the recovery would be induced by a movement of acceleration in technological innovations, so we decided not only not to postpone this agenda, but to accelerate. We had to anticipate the process“.

He went on to say that the official forecast for the PIX was for 2023, but anticipation led to tests starting already this week. However, it will not be fully operational until 2022:

„The first time we talked about instant payments, the date proposed [by the team] was 2023. I wanted it for 2020. Then we looked at the platform, the technology part, and what it needed to make it work. We couldn’t put all the features in at once. So we set it at 2022″.

Digital Economy: Central Bank registers 3.5 million keys on first day of PIX
Open Banking should be launched next year, allowing the same user to aggregate all their financial accounts on a single platform, taking away the information exclusivity of the banking institutions. It is in this sector that the president of the Central Bank says he has met more resistance, but the potential for banking seems to have convinced the banking sector:

„With respect to open banking, there was more resistance to governance, larger banks wanted more governance because they had more market share. We don’t think that this is a zero-sum game, that when one grows the other decreases, we think that this is a game where everyone grows and we begin to have segmentation. Banking will increase a lot“.

He goes on to say that the pandemic has led the government to access 40 million people who were being banked, and that in the end the innovations should make banks have „a much bigger piece“ of the national banking market.

Investing in Nubank is ‚punctured‘; it is taking greater risk for worse profitability, warns Brazil’s Capital Research
He concluded by saying that big techs‘ initiatives in the payments sector are very welcome and that the Central Bank wants giants like WhatsApp and Google to bring their payment systems to Brazil:

„WhatsApp Pay, Google Pay, and other platforms are all very healthy. We want them to come to Brazil. WhatsApp should start operating the first part, which is P2P [transfers], soon. We want Google to come too and PayPal to do more business in the country. Our interest is not to stop any movement, it is to make it have competition“.

Il y a un soutien et une résistance à 300 milliards de dollars et 425 milliards de dollars, respectivement.

La capitalisation boursière Bitcoin Future est plus optimiste que la capitalisation boursière totale.

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Le Trust Project est un consortium international d’organisations de presse établissant des normes de transparence.

Marché de la volatilité de la cryptographie Bitcoin BTC

La capitalisation boursière totale de la crypto-monnaie (TOTALCAP) est en train de tester à nouveau une zone de résistance dont elle s’est détachée.

Si la zone tient, le TOTALCAP devrait continuer à monter. L’Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) a une action de prix très similaire.

TOTALCAP a augmenté depuis qu’il a atteint son plus bas le 13 mars. Le mouvement à la hausse s’est poursuivi jusqu’à ce qu’il atteigne un sommet de 383 milliards de dollars le 17 août.

À l’intérieur de cette zone de support, un double fond a été créé, qui est un modèle de retournement haussier. De plus, les trois indicateurs (MACD, RSI et oscillateur stochastique) sont en hausse, ce dernier ayant effectué un croisement haussier.

Tous ces éléments suggèrent qu’un mouvement à la hausse est susceptible de suivre, à moins que la zone de support ne s’effondre

Le trader en crypto- monnaie @TheEuroSniper a déclaré que la capitalisation boursière totale de la crypto-monnaie est à un point de décision car elle est tombée en dessous du bas de la fourchette précédente. Une reprise de la gamme indiquerait que le plafond va se rallier.

Cependant, un examen du calendrier hebdomadaire révèle que TOTALCAP n’est pas réellement tombé en dessous du haut de gamme. Si les cours de clôture sont utilisés, la baisse actuelle est un nouveau test de la zone de résistance précédente, courante avant que le prix ne monte.

De plus, plusieurs fermetures hebdomadaires en juillet / août 2020 étaient supérieures à celles de juillet 2019, lorsqu’une longue mèche supérieure a été créée, suivie d’une baisse. Les indicateurs techniques ne montrent pas encore de faiblesse.

Si TOTALCAP continue d’augmenter, la prochaine zone de résistance se situerait à 425 milliards de dollars, le niveau de 0,5 Fib de toute la chute précédente.

L’Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) a une action de prix similaire à celle du TOTALCAP mais est légèrement plus haussière.

ALTCAP est déjà sorti d’une ligne de résistance descendante et se déplace plus haut. Les indicateurs techniques sont presque identiques, les trois indicateurs (MACD, RSI et oscillateur stochastique) en augmentation, ce dernier ayant effectué un croisement haussier et le RSI étant supérieur à 50.

Par conséquent, nous nous attendons à ce que ALTCAP continue de progresser.

Com base na análise de Bitcoin Moving Average (MA), o ativo digital está agora se preparando para uma corrida em alta.

Na hora da imprensa, o ativo estava sendo negociado a $10.522, um valor acima da chave 100MA e 200MA.

Historicamente, o preço do Bitcoin raramente ficou abaixo do 200MA. No caso de o preço cruzar abaixo, é um sinal de que os ursos estão no controle sinalizando um declínio ainda maior do ativo. Naturalmente, se o preço cruzar acima do nível 200MA, é um sinal possível de que os touros estão ditando a ação do preço.

Em comparação com a variação do preço de 100MA Bitcoin é de cerca de 8,45%, enquanto a variação para 200 MA é de 44,46%. Os analistas acreditam que as mudanças positivas apontam todas para um mercado de touros que tem sido elusivo nas últimas semanas.

Nos últimos dias, o preço do Bitcoin pareceu estar se preparando para mais uma chance de 11 mil dólares. Embora o preço da Bitcoin tenha caído significativamente no final do mês passado, os analistas têm dado uma perspectiva positiva para o ativo.

Em um tweet, uma figura criptográfica conhecida como Crypto Hamster sustenta a opinião de que:

„Uma das assinaturas de um mercado de touro é quando o preço está acima das principais médias móveis e quanto maior a escala da média móvel, mais baixo é colocado, por exemplo, em um período de tempo semanal: Price>50MA>100MA>200MA”

Tabela de preços do bitcoin. Indicadores: médias móveis (50MA; 100MA; 200MA).

De uma perspectiva em alta, uma ruptura crucial tem que se manter acima de US$ 10.500. Uma vez que o preço do Bitcoin mantém esta área para suporte, o 100MA pode ser classificado como suporte. Tal movimento também garantiria um impulso ainda maior para cima em direção a US$ 11.500 e o possível início de um mercado de touro.

A Bitcoin registra a maior queda mensal de preços

No entanto, os níveis de apoio ainda estão sobre a mesa, considerando que a quebra é incerta depois que a Bitcoin registrou a maior queda mensal de preços desde março. A Bitcoin caiu mais de 2,5% em 24 horas, enquanto a queda mensal foi de mais de 10%.

A queda começou em 29 de setembro, quando o preço da Bitcoin caiu abruptamente em 3% após uma rejeição em torno do nível de suporte de 11.000 dólares. A queda levou a reações mistas por parte dos comerciantes.

Em março, os preços caíram quase 25%, pois a queda induzida pelo coronavírus nos mercados acionários globais desencadeou uma corrida global por dinheiro, enviando o dólar para cima.

Uma seção de analistas espera que os ativos mais arriscados e sem risco cresçam à medida que o Congresso americano planeja retomar as negociações para aprovar o segundo pacote de estímulo do coronavírus.

A principios de septiembre, Bitcoin sufrió un fuerte retroceso que llevó la moneda a 9.800 dólares desde 12.500 dólares.
La caída marcó un rechazo crucial del nivel horizontal de 12.000 dólares semanalmente.
Hay algunos analistas que se volvieron pesimistas después de que Bitcoin formara ese rechazo crucial.
Sin embargo, algunos han dicho que BTC sigue en un punto positivo en un marco macro.
Señalan que Bitcoin Trader mantuvo los mínimos críticos en 10.000 dólares.
10.000 dólares es una región psicológica y técnica crucial para la criptocracia, ya que marcó altos y bajos previos.

¿Por qué todo el mundo es pesimista en Bitcoin?

La caída de Bitcoin a principios de mes y la posterior incapacidad de la cripto moneda para repuntar ha preocupado a algunos analistas. Piensan que el fuerte rechazo en los máximos de 12.000 dólares es una señal de que la criptodivisa se mantiene en un rango macro en lugar de un mercado alcista macro.

Sin embargo, puede que no sea el caso.

Un operador compartió el siguiente gráfico el 27 de septiembre. Muestra que la reciente caída de la BTC desde los 12.000$ a los 9.800$ fue en realidad una macro prueba de un nivel horizontal crucial donde el activo alcanzó su punto más alto en febrero.

El hecho de que Bitcoin haya conseguido confirmar ese nivel como soporte sugiere que hay más ventajas en los trabajos.

Sobre los posibles riesgos electorales, que algunos temen que puedan hundir los mercados globales, el mismo analista señaló que no está demasiado preocupado. Explicó que una vez que pase la incertidumbre de la elección, los mercados de riesgo de todo el mundo deberían funcionar bien, ya que el capital vuelve a entrar en los mercados.

Es probable que un nuevo repunte en el mercado de valores ayude a Bitcoin, que se ha correlacionado con los mercados heredados durante la pandemia.

„También nos dirigimos a una estacionalidad positiva seria al entrar en el cuarto trimestre. Puede que sean unos meses difíciles debido a las elecciones en EE.UU. pero ya hemos tenido un profundo retroceso en los mercados de riesgo. Cuando las elecciones de EE.UU. estén fuera del camino, creo que todo explotará. #BTC.“

Gráfico de la acción del precio macro de BTC desde el comienzo de 2017 con el análisis del analista criptográfico MacroCRG (@MacroCRG en Twitter).

Los fundamentos también son decididamente alcistas

En el fondo, los fundamentos del espacio de Bitcoin están más en alza que nunca, ya que el capital humano y financiero entra en el espacio en masa.

La infraestructura está mejorando rápidamente a medida que Fidelity, PayPal, Microsoft, Visa, el Intercontinental Exchange, y otros impulsan el capital serio detrás de los activos criptográficos. Miles de millones están entrando al espacio a través de las a16zs y secuoyas del mundo. Además, Paul Tudor Jones, Jack Dorsey, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, y Marc Andreessen están desviando sus esfuerzos al espacio, ya que esperan un crecimiento.

Paraswap is an interface layer facilitating interactions with decentralized exchanges (DEX). The French company based in Nanterre has just raised $ 2.7 million to expand.

The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi)

It is impossible to miss the rise of decentralized finance on Bitcoin Superstar. For several months, these protocols which aim to provide the same services as traditional finance, in a more transparent and inclusive manner, have multiplied. The volume of decentralized exchange platforms ( DEX ) is constantly increasing.

Indeed, DEXs are particularly innovative, especially with the arrival of AMMs ( Automated Market Makers ). If Uniswap is leading the way, it now has competitors like Curve Finance (CRV), Balancer (BAL) or SushiSwap (SUSHI). These protocols offer different incentive mechanisms for liquidity providers .

It is therefore becoming increasingly difficult to navigate this jungle and navigate between the different options available to trade a given pair.

Indeed, not all DEXs present in the clearest way the costs of a swap for the user. In addition, the costs of interacting with a new service can be high .

ParaSwap: streamline interaction with decentralized exchanges

ParaSwap responds to this complexity by offering middleware , an interface between the user and the DEXs . The platform aggregates the liquidity available on all these exchanges into a complete API . The service is of course also accessible via a web interface .

At a glance, the user can know the different rates available for his swap . Better yet, ParaSwap uses a routing technique that can lower costs for the user. It is able to distribute transactions over multiple DEXs if this improves the effective cost of the exchange.

ParaSwap also has its own liquidity pool , ParaSwap Pool . On high volume pairs (ether, stablecoins), this service regularly offers the best rates on the market.

The success of ParaSwap can be seen by taking a look at the trade volumes facilitated by the service:

ParaSwap fundraising

The ParaSwap team announced a fundraising of $ 2.7 million to decentralize the protocol. Indeed, the team wants to make the ParaSwap infrastructure as transparent as possible and integrate the decisions of its community .

32 renowned investors have invested in the project. Among them, we find funds venture capital well known as BlockChain Capital Lemniscap, Coinfund, Spartan Capital, Arrington XRP CMS Holdings, CoinGecko, FTX … But also famous names of cryptosphère as Stani Kulechov (creator of Aave), Zurab Kazhiloti, David J. Namdar, or Arthur Cheong (creator of DeFiance Capital).

The ParaSwap team can therefore move up a gear. From features news will be announced soon. Likewise, it sets up numerous partnerships . The assumed objective of ParaSwap is to become the most accessible and transparent DeFi middleware on the market. To do this, ParaSwap is recruiting: the team is particularly looking for engineers ready to take on new and exciting challenges.